Who will be the next Maple Leafs head coach? A tiered list of candidates

Domino number one is down. It wasn’t much of a surprise when the Toronto Maple Leafs announced the firing of coach Sheldon Keefe on Thursday. When they divided their season-ending media availability with only the players and Keefe speaking on Monday and management speaking later in the week, bumping the latter presser from Thursday to Friday, it was clear they were buying time to make some big decisions.

Named to the job in November of 2019, Keefe compiled a 349-212-97 record across four and a half seasons, including five playoff runs. His .665 points percentage is the highest in NHL history among coaches with at least 300 games. But none of that mattered anymore. He won a single playoff series with a team that consistently finished near the top of the standings, and he developed a reputation as a bench boss who was too slow to make crucial lineup adjustments in high-stakes moments.

The Leafs, out of patience and trying desperately to break through during superstar Auston Matthews’ peak prime years, will try to jumpstart their club with a new voice following their seven-game defeat to the Boston Bruins in Round 1 this spring.

Who are the top candidates to replace Keefe? Consider this tiered list and note that it mostly skews toward experienced names. At this stage, the Leafs in all likelihood want a battle-tested winner with the mentality to push their players toward a championship.

AVAILABLE & EXPERIENCED

Craig Berube

Berube is the only coach of a Stanley Cup winner since 2016 who is currently on the market. Mike Sullivan, Barry Trotz (as a GM), Jon Cooper, Jared Bednar and Bruce Cassidy are gainfully employed. If the Leafs are looking for a hardened bench boss with recent experience taking a team on a deep playoff run, Berube jumps out as the most obvious candidate. He and the Ottawa Senators reportedly couldn’t get a deal done for financial reasons. If the deepest wallet wins, the Leafs are obviously well-positioned to land Berube. The only knock: aside from the magical Blues run of 2018-19, which was partially fuelled by Jordan Binnington’s unconscious play in net, Berube’s teams tended to post sneaky-bad defensive metrics. Has the one Cup win made him overrated?

Jay Woodcroft

Kris Knoblauch has done a tremendous job with the Edmonton Oilers, especially when it comes to improving their defensive system. But if we’re honest with ourselves: Woodcroft would still be Edmonton’s coach today if he had gotten even league-average goaltending in October. He engineered a tremendous in-season turnaround when he took over the Oilers’ bench partway through 2021-22 and took them to the Western Conference Final. Woodcroft is also more experienced than he’s sometimes perceived to be, having worked in the pros for almost two decades now, including stints as the Detroit Red Wings’ video coach, the San Jose Sharks’ assistant coach and the Bakersfield Condors’ head coach. Given his familiarity with the Sharks organization, however, he’s clearly a top candidate for their vacant job, too. But the Leafs can probably offer more money, plus a chance for Woodcroft to return to his home city.

Claude Julien

Julien has 1,274 games and 667 wins to his name, which would make him the most experienced of the potentially available candidates. Julien, known for installing disciplined defensive systems, hasn’t coached in the NHL since 2020-21. It’s debatable whether his style could jive with all the finesse in Toronto’s core, but it’s hard to argue with his resume, which includes a 2010-11 Stanley Cup and 2012-13 Cup Final appearance with the Boston Bruins.

Bruce Boudreau

If you’re all about the vibes? No hire would feel as warm and fuzzy as ‘Gabby,’ a former Maple Leaf player and one of the most universally liked people in the game. As I’ve been told by multiple players who’ve competed for him before, Boudreau has a reputation of “unlocking” his players’ talents and putting them in roles that accentuate their best traits. But would he represent more of the same in Toronto? He’s a player’s coach with a history of tremendous regular-season success and playoff disappointment. He’s never taken a team further than a conference final.

Gerard Gallant

If the Leafs want a high-floor, plug-and-play veteran replacement, they could do a lot worse than Gallant, who helmed competitive teams in Florida, Vegas and New York over the past decade. But Gallant has also worn out his welcome quickly at every stop, including in Vegas not even two years after he won the Jack Adams Award. The Rangers players have spoken glowingly about feeling so much more cohesive and organized under Peter Laviolette this season; not exactly a ringing endorsement of Gallant.

Todd McLellan

McLellan is one of the most experienced candidates out there and has spent time behind the bench of a Canadian team. But between his stints with the San Jose Sharks, Oilers and Los Angeles Kings, he has never taken a franchise all the way. He brings structure and competitiveness and feels like a better fit for a struggling team trying to become relevant rather than an already-strong team trying to go deep in the playoffs.

Dean Evason

Evason did an admirable job over the past few seasons with some Minnesota Wild teams that were hamstrung by salary-cap penalties and couldn’t give him many new toys to play with. He’s never worked with a roster as talented as Toronto’s. He deserves a shot with a full deck of cards, and his fiery personality could be the splash of cold water the dressing room needs.

Dan Bylsma

Would the Leafs go off the board and dust off the 2009 Stanley Cup champion Bylsma? He hasn’t worked as an NHL head coach since his failed run with the Buffalo Sabres ended in 2016-17. But Bylsma has done a tremendous job steering the Coachella Valley Firebirds in the NHL over the past couple of seasons. While that makes him a natural internal candidate to replace the fired Dave Hakstol in Seattle, it doesn’t mean the Leafs couldn’t lure him. Bylsma has specific experience in working with superstar-caliber players to help them break through and become champions, having done so with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Could he do the same with Matthews, William Nylander and Co.?

INTERNAL

John Gruden

The winning answer for a club isn’t always to look outside for a retread. The Penguins won championships in 2016 and 2017 after plucking Mike Sullivan from their AHL affiliate. The Tampa Bay Lightning have enjoyed their greatest run of success in their history under an internally promoted head coach in Jon Cooper. The Leafs could pivot to Gruden. He has a reputation as an “iron sharpens iron” type of personality and could inject the Leafs’ dressing room with accountability. The problem here: the Leafs already tried this path. Keefe was an internal hire after they fired celebrity-tier head coach Mike Babcock. The pendulum will likely swing back toward an uber-experienced bench boss this time.

AVAILABLE, BUT IT’S COMPLICATED

Joel Quenneville

To be clear, I’m not advocating for Quenneville, merely being realistic about the possibility of his name being tabled as a potential option should the NHL decide to reinstate him. In terms of experience, success, and likelihood of helping the Leafs slay their playoff demons – Quenneville would obviously be the most qualified candidate by a wide margin. He’s one of the best ever to do it. But there’s no divorcing him from his connection to the dynastic Blackhawks and the coverup of Brad Aldrich’s 2010 sexual assault of Kyle Beach. The Leafs would be detonating a PR bomb by hiring ‘Q,’ despite the fact he insists he never learned the exact nature of the allegations against Aldrich before Beach came forward in 2021. Quenneville admits he didn’t do enough, didn’t ask enough questions, to protect his player in Beach. So it’s a matter of deciding whether Quenneville deserves another chance.

NOT AVAILABLE FOR NOW, BUT DREAM HIRES

Mike Sullivan

It’s no secret Sullivan, a Penguins institution for almost nine years, was strongly opposed to any changes to his staff before GM Kyle Dubas axed assistant coach Todd Reirden last week. There is little history – and perhaps little long-term loyalty established – between the longtime head coach and a GM one year into his tenure. Sullivan remains under contract, but the Leafs job is one of the unicorns in the sport. If he had interest in the position, would the Penguins be willing to walk away? Then again, considering how things ended between Dubas and the Leafs a year ago, it’s tough to imagine him wanting to help them.

Jon Cooper

Cooper has it all in Tampa: multiple Stanley Cup rings, a tremendous track record of success, and a cushy existence in a warm-climate market with no state income tax. Why would he want to leave? It’s a matter of whether Cooper, a big personality who doesn’t lack for ego, would want to conquer a new summit. The same idea attracted Babcock in 2015. With the Bolts bowing out of the playoffs in the first round the past two seasons, maybe GM Julien BriseBois would be amenable to the idea, too, though it has been confirmed that Cooper remains under contract for next year.

NON-EXPERIENCED

David Carle

It’s only a matter of time for Carle, who is perceived by many to be the best coach yet to try his hand in the pros, having guided the University of Denver to NCAA championships in two of the past three seasons. But given where the Leafs are in their contention window, would they really want to bring in a bench boss who has to learn the pro game, and how to manage pro personalities, and how to navigate the highest-pressure market in the sport, on the fly? The fit feels wrong.